Milo & Michelle McGarry

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Monday, October 6, 2008

Market Activity Year to Date

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The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver just published the 3rd quarter statistics for the board as a whole. The statistics detail the number of sales and listings taken in recent months and compare those numbers with the previous year and year to date numbers. The numbers show the trend that has been discussed over the past 6 months, namely that sales are down and listings are up. Not a suprise. When supply increases (listings higher) and demand decreases (sales lower), prices must fall. The exact reason for this is clear when you look at the one major factor in the "make up" of every seller. That factor is motivation. Motivation is different for every seller. Some are selling to move up or down. Others are selling because they are transferred out of the area. Others are selling investment property. Others are banks selling foreclosures. Motivation level is going to be different for each seller. Some will have to sell. Others can sit back and sell or not, it won't change their overall lifestyle. The sellers that have to sell have little option but "go to the market". What I mean by that is that they must reduce their price until their property sells. It sounds simplistic but that is how real estate prices fall. Some sellers are more motivated than others and must reduce prices to get their properties sold. At some point prices stabilize because buyers are enticed back into the market by lower prices. A simple calculation can tell you what is happening in the market. It's helpfull to look at how many months worth of supply is on the market. Right now in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody there is a total of 1,175 detached home listings on the market. In September there were 88 detached homes sold. That works out to more that 13 months supply of homes on the market in the Tri City area. Wow!!

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